Forecast Bitcoin

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BITCOIN ALLOCATION STRATEGY
Now that we’ve discussed why Bitcoin is valuable to us as investors, how to
buy and store bitcoins, and what to buy, the next and final step is to allocate
your cryptocurrencies within your portfolio.
In order to discover which allocation strategy works best for your individual
portfolio, preferences, and style, it’s important to first understand the hidden
risks of traditional investment portfolios and the significance of a long-term
approach. Within the long-term approach, you can consider the pros and
cons of entering the market with dollar-cost averaging, lump-sum investing,
and averaging down.
We’ll round off this report with three allocation strategies in which Bitcoin
can play a role and a specific strategy example.
THE HIDDEN RISKS OF A TRADITIONAL INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO
It is important to use Bitcoin as part of a diversified portfolio. It offers a counterbalance to a series of growing risks that are associated with traditional
investment practices. Let’s take a brief look at the risks involved with government bonds, stock markets and brokerages, and real estate.
With interest rates at their lowest in more than 1000 years, a government
bond portfolio offers only the illusion of security these days. Once a government can no longer pay its debts, it will default and the bonds become
worthless. Alternatively, if a government can’t repay debts from tax income,
it forces central banks to buy the government debt with newly printed
money—the bond owners still get paid, but with devaluing money that
eventually becomes subject to high inflation, or even hyperinflation.
Stock markets also carry risk with them, because stock valuations are usually
built upon assumptions about future consumption and future availability of
credit. With a population, a banking system, and a government that is highly
indebted (even in ‘hot’ countries such as China), that situation can change
quickly. In today’s situation of unprecedented global quantitative easing (money printing), newly printed money flows into the financial system
through the banks, which often then use it to invest in stock and derivative
markets. This ‘hot money’ can create bubbles such as what we’re probably
seeing in the U.S. technology sector today.
In the current financial system it is a complex process to directly own stock
in a company. Usually you have to trust a broker to store your certificate for
you, but in professional circles it is widely known that stocks belonging to
clients are used by the broker as collateral for risky bets on the financial
markets (this was at the heart of the MF Global scandal in October 2011,
during which $1.6 billion in customer funds was lost).
Many investors make the mistake that real estate offers them a secure outlook, but history shows that in times of rising interest rates and a subsequent credit drought, housing prices can drop for years on end.10 Moreover,
in severe crises such as a 1929-style crash or a hyperinflationary scenario,
governments tend to choose the side of the voting public (made up of
mostly tenants, not owners) and don’t hesitate to impose rent controls and
other measures that paralyze the real estate markets.
THE IMPORTANCE OF A LONG-TERM STRATEGY
In the Bitcoin ecosystem, it is crucial to keep in mind that volatility is a certainty; it’s a phenomenon that investors must learn to stomach. A bull market
never goes up in a straight line, and any successful Bitcoin investor will have
to fight through significant downturns to earn his results.
Investor Jesse Livermore has said, “After spending many years in Wall Street
and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: it never
was my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting.
Got that? My sitting tight!”11
To hold is often both the hardest and most important aspect of investing.
It’s easy to find tales of those who found Bitcoin early on but who sold too
soon. One member of Reddit’s /r/Bitcoin only bought into cryptocurrencies
this year, but he lost over 120 BTC from gambling with it instead of taking a
long-term approach.12
But there are success stories as well: in 2013, a Norwegian man discovered
his then-forgotten investment of 5,000 BTC.13 He had spent the equivalent
of $26.60 USD on them in 2009. Today, if he has kept all those coins, he
would have over $1.1 million.
With the rollercoaster volatility of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, it can
be difficult to sit tight and resist the urge to sell—especially because markets sometimes take a while to exceed previous highs. Revisiting the evidence behind Bitcoin’s long-term promise can help keep investors positive
and steady-handed through the lows and rallies. Once you have carefully
established the strategy that’s right for you, maintaining long-term perspective and preparing psychologically for bad (and worst case) scenarios is a
reliable way to keep a healthy outlook and refraining from selling.
DOLLAR COST AVERAGING VS. LUMP SUM INVESTING
If there’s anything Bitcoin and the altcoins are notorious for, it’s their volatility. Since BTC started trading in 2010, we have seen five big price rallies and
as many consolidation periods, during which prices dropped by a decrease
of 70% as a minimum.
There is a lively discussion among Bitcoin investors about whether to enter
the market with a lump-sum investment or to invest fixed amounts every
month (dollar-cost averaging). Most investment advisors are proponents of
dollar-cost averaging, and sometimes with good results, but research shows
that its merits over lump-sum investing are not consistent.14
How you enter the market is less about the ‘right’ or ‘wrong’ way and more
about personal preference, as long as you have an accurate picture of the
long-term trend and you are careful not to invest too close to the top of the
market. It’s best to take the approach with which you feel most comfortable
considering your particular financial, family, and life situation.
We generally suggest choosing the method that best allows you to stay
invested for the long-term. If for you that means buying a lump sum and putting your coins into cold storage (‘set it and forget it’), then that is your way
to go. If you know you have difficulty stomaching short-term declines, or if
most of your investable funds come from monthly income, then dollar-cost
averaging could be the most advantageous strategy for you.
AVERAGING DOWN
Averaging down is the process of additional buying at lower prices than you
originally purchased. This method is usually praised because it brings the
average purchasing price down, but we are fond of it for another reason:
averaging down before entering the market forces to you decide at which
levels you will buy more—which helps to psychologically prepare for lower
prices.
The downside to averaging down is that if an asset that is going to zero (and
practically any asset’s value can drop to zero), you increase your losses as
you buy more on the way down. To mitigate this, if you choose the averaging
down investment strategy it is advisable to decide beforehand how much
you are willing to invest in this asset overall.
One final aspect to consider is the situation of entering the market before a
big rally. If this happens, you will probably end up buying less of that asset
than you had originally planned. You can counter this by buying above a
certain price and then immediately setting a stop-loss sell order below that
buying price. Then when the price declines again, you have cash ready to go
back to your original averaging down strategy.
ALLOCATION STRATEGY SUGGESTIONS
We think a well-rounded portfolio includes investments in a basket of blockchain technologies (altcoins), with an emphasis on Bitcoin. This portfolio can
play a part in three distinct strategies: as an insurance policy, as a hedge in
a broad speculative portfolio, and as a calculated bet on an early retirement.
Let’s break each one down.
BITCOIN AS INSURANCE: 1-2% OF FINANCIAL WEALTH
First, Bitcoin is a fantastic insurance policy against a number of systemic
risks inherent in even the most conservative-looking investment portfolios.
The modern investor (if he is aware of the fundamental risks in a financial
system that is likely the most indebted in the history of the world) is wise to
diversify a small percentage of his portfolio, for example 1-2%, into cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Reasons for this are:
• Bitcoin has very low counterparty risk: you don’t have to trust anyone to hold your bitcoins for you, and every transaction is validated
by a global, decentralized network of Bitcoin miners who have virtually no ability to interfere.
• If stored correctly, Bitcoin is practically non-confiscatable. It is
‘money in the cloud.’ Not only can you organize your portfolio so
that no one but you has exclusive access to your bitcoins, but the
global network of Bitcoin is accessible from anywhere on the planet.
It is the ultimate emergency fund: accessible whenever you want,
only to you, from anywhere in the world, at any time.
• Bitcoin offers a backup financial system. If the existing system
crashes, or there is a widely held fear that it might do so, there are
hundreds of cryptocurrency entrepreneurs and coders who can
quickly scale the economy up to serve the needs of the public at
large. If this happens, the value of your Bitcoin investments will
likely skyrocket, which can compensate for the losses incurred in
the traditional portfolio.
BTC IN A SPECULATIVE PORTFOLIO: 2-5% OF FINANCIAL ASSETS
Doug Casey, author of the Casey International Speculator newsletter, defines
the activity of speculating as “capitalizing on politically caused distortions in
the marketplace.” One gigantic distortion we are faced with today is central
bank interventionism, which affects and undermines the financial system
at large. A broad speculative portfolio of today would typically be betting
on the rise of safe haven assets—like precious metals, cash, deflated real
estate, stock markets with low CAPE ratios, and agricultural commodities—
that are not tied up in the system.
Despite the best efforts of their manager, assets in a speculative portfolio
can still move up and down in concert during a crisis situation. In a 2008-
type deflationary scenario, people might panic-sell and initiate a massive
flight into the U.S. dollar and bonds, which are two assets that normally have
only a smaller position in a speculative portfolio.
This is where a modest Bitcoin investment (2-5% of the total) can especially
shine. In the case of a panic, it is likely that a small percentage of people will
choose to take financial refuge in Bitcoin. Given the small market cap of the
cryptocurrency sector, this could lead to a spectacular rise in the Bitcoin price,
compensating for many of the losses incurred in the rest of the portfolio.
EARLY RETIREMENT BET: 5-10% OF FINANCIAL ASSETS
As we discussed at the beginning of this report, Bitcoin is likely a disruptive
technology that could radically transform how property is exchanged around
the world. It’s possible that with Bitcoin we are witnessing the birth of the
‘internet of property’ that in 10 to 20 years could be used by hundreds of
millions of people. Just as the Internet of information redefined the structure of information markets, the emergence of an internet of property would
redefine capital flows, making them more secure and efficient and resulting
in massive wealth creation in the coming years.
Though certainly not without risk (and only advisable for investors of a fairly
young age, given the risk and volatility of the market), we think it can be reasonable to aim for an early retirement by means of investing in blockchain
technology. After a two year cooldown period and with a rapidly maturing
ecosystem, the risk/reward ratio of Bitcoin as an asset appears to be among
the best available worldwide.
We believe returns of 100x over 10 years are possible, though obviously
not guaranteed. As an example, if Bitcoin achieves a market cap that is 10%
of the gold market, an investment of $10,000 in early 2015 would become
worth an inflation-adjusted equivalent of over $1 million.
Given the highly volatile nature of the sector and the not-insignificant risks
(such as loss of coins, introduction of a new currency that overtakes BTC, or
network failure), our advice to investors who wish to take a swing at early
retirement is to invest 5-10% of their financial assets in Bitcoin (and we suggest investing at least an equal amount in that other decentralized, private
money, i.e. gold bullion). Keeping your exposure limited is how you will survive and thrive during the inevitable violent downswings of this bull market.
STRATEGY EXAMPLE: INVESTING $50,000 IN BITCOIN
First, $50,000 is most certainly not the right amount to invest for everyone. Carefully study and consider what amount and strategy is right for you
depending on your own personal profile.
To get a clear look at the strategies we described above, we’ll used the example of a $50,000 investment in the blockchain economy.
• $16,000 is allocated as a lump-sum purchase of Bitcoin: set it and
forget it.
• $15,000 is allocated to a dollar-cost averaging strategy over a period
of 6 months, to be invested in purchasing Bitcoin.
• $15,000 is allocated to a Bitcoin averaging down strategy, providing
cash to invest when the price makes a significant downturn.
• $3,000 is allocated to an altcoin portfolio consisting of 4-8 currencies. For currencies that have risen a lot lately, the budget is invested
in tranches over several months.
• $1,000 is invested in new opportunities (start-up currencies or
crowdsourced assets).
In percentage terms, this will eventually result in approximately the following portfolio: 92% in Bitcoin, 6% in altcoins, and 2% in new opportunities.
Over time, as the ecosystem matures, we can use the 90% Bitcoin allocation
to reinvest elsewhere in the sector.